That weren't no DJ, that was hazy cosmic jive

A wee reminder about 2006

Polling trends across the 2005/06 federal election. Looked pretty rosy for Paul Martin at first.....

See the big image of 2005/06 election campaign polls here.

Sooo, today’s polls suggest it would be sheer madness for the Liberals to encourage an election now. Madness! Can we survive on faith alone that the high-level scrutiny of an electoral campaign will somehow reverse Ignatieff’s dreadful fortunes?

We can use more than faith – let’s use an example!

Federal election 2006. When the campaign kicked off, you basically had the inverse of the LPC/CPC numbers today. Martin in low- to mid-thirties, Harper in the high twenties.

What’s more, the Tories success in turning that campaign around wasn’t just through plodding away with those “one policy item a day” releases. Those helped. But the switch in voter intention also happened directly after Christmas Day, running up through New Years. Is there something to that? Many voters were off work, finished with their shopping, and were finally cloistered with family and friends for a few days with little to do but talk, think, watch the news, and talk and think some more.

A population that thinks and talks is always going to threaten the incumbents.

Should a 2011 election campaign span across the Easter break, you never know – Canadians just might find themselves with a bit more free time, and in the middle of few more conversations about the country. I can’t see how that would be good for Harper.

Filed under: Canada, Politics, , , , , , , ,

New poll: should Ignatieff strike back?

It blows the mind. In a month where Stephen Harper has supplanted the name Canada with his own name in official reference to our government; defended (and largely hid away) a minister guilty of fraud; been hit with two separate charges of contempt of parliament; have had economic forecasts for F-35 fighters ridiculed by Kevin Page; Ignatieff is polling lower than ever, and Harper as high as he’s ever been.

One reason for this, and one reason only: Harper’s attack ads, which seem remarkably effective on Canadians. Who’d have thought? Are we more Zdeno Chara than Wayne Gretzky after all?

Michael, if you need a couch to crash on in London as a kind of reprieve from this mass Canadian madness, give me a buzz. In the meantime, I suppose the jury is out on what the next Liberal approach needs to be. Attack back? Keep calm and carry on?

Vote in the little poll here.

Correction: have replaced reference to CF-18 with the more contemporary F-35 jets. What was I thinking??

Filed under: Canada, Politics, , , ,


March 2011
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